NFL Draft pick trade value chart How Jimmy Johnson Rich Hill shaped the way that teams evaluate draft picks in trades
The NFL hasn't always been a trade-happy league, but we have seen quite a few deals during the 2022 offseason. Several big-name quarterbacks including Ru sell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Deshaun Watson have been traded and eight teams in the NFL now have multiple first-round picks.Those teams now have a lot of buying power in the 2022 NFL Draft. They will be able to move up and down the board as they please while also setting themselves up to add a sets during the 2023 NFL Draft if all goes well.That said, NFL fans may wonder exactly how these teams evaluate draft picks when making a trade. After all, teams don't know who will be on the board at certain junctures in the draft, so how can they properly a se s the worth of a pick?Over the years, the NFL has figured out a way to determine the value of a draft pick. Some of the sport's brightest minds have created charts that a se s what each pick is worth. Some were founded arbitrarily while others approached the problem more analytically, but at this point, every NFL team has a trade value chart.That doesn't mean that they are all the same. In fact, they vary from team to team. But generally, all teams are in the same ballpark when discu sing draft pick value, and that's thanks to the charts that were pioneered by Jimmy Johnson.Below is a look at Johnson's original draft value chart as well as a more recently-created chart that uses a more analytical approach to the valuation than Johnson's.IYER: The original NFL Draft value chart was created by Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Cowboys in the early 1990s. The idea was simple. He wanted to a sign numerical values to each draft pick as a way to evaluate the worth of picks for potential trades.So, Johnson created the draft value trade chart by giving the first pick Carlos Beltran Jersey in the draft the highest value at 3,000 points. Each pick after that decreased in value. This chart gave the Cowboys a competitive advantage when making trades in the early stages of its use, but eventually, the rest of the NFL adopted it.The value chart changes slightly from year to year because of the varying number of compensatory picks tacked on to each round beginning in the third and beyond. Here's a look at how the values shake out for the 2022 NFL Draft, .Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7PK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValue1 JAX3,00033 JAX58065 JAX265106 JAX82144 CAR34180 JAX17.8222 JAX1.72 DET2,60034 DET56066 DET260107 HOU80145 DEN33181 DET17.4223 CLE1.43 HOU2,20035 NYJ55067 NYG255108 HOU78146 NYJ31.4182 NYG17224 MIA1.14 NYJ1,80036 NYG54068 HOU250109 SEA76147 NYG31183 HOU16.6225 PIT15 NYG1,70037 HOU53069 NYJ245110 BAL74148 CHI30.6184 MIN16.2226 CIN16 CAR1,60038 NYJ52070 JAX240111 NYJ72149 CAR30.2185 BUF15.8227 LV17 NYG1,50039 CHI51071 CHI235112 NYG70150 CHI29 Josh Reddick Jersey .8186 CHI15.4228 GB18 ATL1,40040 SEA50072 SEA230113 WAS68151 ATL29.4187 SF15229 SEA19 SEA1,35041 SEA49073 IND225114 ATL66152 SEA29188 JAX14.6230 WAS110 NYJ1,30042 IND48074 ATL220115 DEN64153 SEA28.6189 WAS14.2231 BUF111 WAS1,25043 ATL47075 DEN215116 DEN62154 PHI28.2190 ATL13.8232 DEN112 MIN1,20044 CLE46076 BAL210117 NYJ60155 DAL27.8191 MIN13.4233 KC113 HOU1,15045 BAL45077 MIN205118 CLE58156 MIN27.4192 MIN13234 DET114 BAL1,10046 MIN44078 CLE200119 BAL56157 JAX27193 DAL12.6235 JAX115 PHI1,05047 WAS43079 LAC195120 NO54158 NE26.6194 NO12.2236 LAC116 NO100048 CHI42080 HOU190121 KC52159 IND26.2195 LAC11.8237 PHI117 LAC95049 NO41081 NYG185122 IND50160 LAC25.8196 BAL11.4238 LAR118 PHI90050 KC40082 ATL180123 LAC49161 NO25.4197 JAX11239 IND119 NO87551 PHI39083 PHI175124 PHI48162 PHI25198 JAX10.6240 WAS120 PIT85052 PIT38084 PIT170125 MIA47163 NYJ24.6199 CAR10.2241 PIT121 NE80053 GB37085 NE165126 LV46164 LV24.2200 NE9.8242 CAR122 GB78054 NE36086 LV160127 NE45165 LV23.8201 ARI9.4243 KC123 ARI76055 ARI35087 ARI155128 BAL44166 PHI23.4202 CLE9244 ARI124 DAL74056 DAL34088 DAL150129 DAL43167 DAL23203 BUF8.6245 HOU125 BUF72057 BUF33089 BUF145130 BUF42168 BUF22.6204 TEN8.2246 CLE126 TEN70058 ATL32090 TEN140131 TEN41169 TEN22.2205 HOU7.8247 MIA127 TB68059 GB31091 TB136132 GB40170 NE21.8206 DEN7.4248 TB128 GB66060 TB30092 GB132133 TB39.5171 GB21.4207 HOU7249 GB129 KC64061 SF29293 SF128134 SF39172 SF21208 PIT6.6250 MIN130 KC62062 KC28494 KC124135 KC38.5173 NYG20.6209 CIN6.2251 KC131 CIN60063 CIN27695 CIN120136 CIN38174 CIN20.2210 NE5.8252 CIN132 DET59064 DEN27096 DEN116137 CAR37.5175 LAR19.8211 LAR5.4253 LAR197 DET112138 PIT37176 DAL19.4212 LAR5254 LAC198 NO108139 BAL36.5177 DET19213 ATL4.6255 LAC199 CLE104140 GB36178 DAL18.6214 LAC4.2256 ARI1100 BAL100141 BAL35.5179 IND18.2215 ARI3.8257 ARI1101 PHI96142 LAR35216 IND3.4258 GB1102 MIA92143 TEN34.5217 DET3259 KC1103 KC88218 LAR2.3260 LAC1104 LAR86219 TEN2261 TB1105 SF84220 SF1.7262 SF1221 SF1.4MORE: Though Johnson's draft value chart was the first of its kind, it is no longer the be-all, end-all for NFL teams. Part of Jeff Bagwell Jersey the reason for that is the fact that Johnson somewhat arbitrarily created the values in his initial chart. His concept was strong, but he had more limited acce s to statistical information and historical trends than NFL teams have now. So, he had to ballpark it a bit more.In recent years, analytics have become far more common in the NFL, so it stands to reason that teams have done a thorough analysis of the trade value chart to find its shortcomings. That has changed the overall value of each pick as well.The trade value charts from team to team are similar, but they are not one size fits all. That said, Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit created a draft pick value chart that many believe more accurately reflects the current value of draft picks in the NFL compared to Johnson's.Below is a look at Hill's model for 2022, which begins by a signing the No. 1 pick 1,000 points instead of 3,000.Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7PK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValuePK/TMValue1 JAX100033 JAX18065 JAX78106 JAX33144 CAR15180 JAX7222 JAX32 DET71734 DET17566 DET76107 HOU33145 DEN14181 DET7223 CLE33 HOU51435 NYJ17067 NYG75108 HOU32146 NYJ14182 NYG7224 MIA34 NYJ49136 NYG16668 HOU73109 SEA32147 NYG14183 HOU7225 PIT35 NYG46837 HOU16269 NYJ71110 BAL31148 CHI13184 MIN6226 CIN36 CAR44638 NYJ15770 JAX70111 NYJ31149 CAR13185 BUF6227 LV37 NYG42639 CHI15371 CHI68112 NYG30150 CHI13186 CHI6228 GB38 ATL40640 SEA14972 SEA67113 WAS29151 ATL12187 SF6229 SEA39 SEA38741 SEA14673 IND65114 ATL29152 SEA12188 JAX6230 WAS210 NYJ36942 IND14274 ATL64115 DEN28153 SEA12189 WAS6231 BUF211 WAS35843 ATL13875 DEN63116 DEN28154 PHI12190 ATL6232 DEN212 MIN34744 CLE13576 J.R. Richard Jersey BAL61117 NYJ27155 DAL11191 MIN6233 KC213 HOU33645 BAL13177 MIN60118 CLE27156 MIN11192 MIN6234 DET214 BAL32546 MIN12878 CLE59119 BAL26157 JAX11193 DAL6235 JAX215 PHI31547 WAS12479 LAC57120 NO26158 NE11194 NO5236 LAC216 NO30548 CHI12180 HOU56121 KC25159 IND10195 LAC5237 PHI217 LAC29649 NO11881 NYG55122 IND25160 LAC10196 BAL5238 LAR218 PHI28750 KC11582 ATL54123 LAC24161 NO10197 JAX5239 IND219 NO27851 PHI11283 PHI52124 PHI24162 PHI10198 JAX5240 WAS220 PIT26952 PIT10984 PIT51125 MIA23163 NYJ9199 CAR5241 PIT221 NE26153 GB10685 NE50126 LV23164 LV9200 NE5242 CAR222 GB25354 NE10486 LV49127 NE22165 LV9201 ARI5243 KC223 ARI24555 ARI10187 ARI48128 BAL22166 PHI9202 CLE5244 ARI224 DAL23756 DAL9888 DAL47129 DAL21167 DAL9203 BUF5245 HOU225 BUF23057 BUF9689 BUF46130 BUF21168 BUF8204 TEN4246 CLE226 TEN22358 ATL9390 TEN45131 TEN20169 TEN8205 HOU4247 MIA227 TB21659 GB9191 TB44132 GB20170 NE8206 DEN4248 TB228 GB20960 TB8892 GB43133 TB19171 GB8207 HOU4249 GB229 KC20361 SF8693 SF42134 SF19172 SF8208 PIT4250 MIN230 KC19662 KC8494 KC41135 KC18173 NYG8209 CIN4251 KC231 CIN19063 CIN8295 CIN40136 CIN18174 CIN7210 NE4252 CIN132 DET18464 DEN8096 DEN39137 CAR18175 LAR7211 LAR4253 LAR197 DET38138 PIT17176 DAL7212 LAR4254 LAC198 NO38139 BAL17177 DET7213 ATL4255 LAC199 CLE37140 GB17178 DAL7214 LAC3256 ARI1100 BAL37141 BAL16179 IND7215 ARI3257 ARI1101 PHI36142 LAR16216 IND3258 GB1102 MIA35143 TEN15217 DET3259 KC1103 KC35218 LAR3260 LAC1104 LAR34219 TEN3261 TB1105 SF34220 SF3262 SF1221 SF3When Hill first ,he cautioned that there are instances when the values are unlikely to line up. Teams often have to pay a premium when moving up for a top-tier prospect (like a quarterback) and must pay a premium to trade back into the first round.Additionally, Hill notes that there is no "perfect value" for future draft picks. They are often discounted in future trades, as teams view current a sets as more valuable than future a sets. Hill explains that the discount on those picks often amounts to about one round. As such, a future second-round pick would be viewed as roughly the same as a current third-round pick.NFL MOCK DRAFT 2022:Most of the trades involving 2022 NFL Draft picks to date have involved players and/or future draft picks within them. While those can be a se sed using the chart, it's a bit harder to do since players and future draft picks aren't given exact values.As such, when looking at examples of the differences between the two trade value charts, it behooves us to look back at a couple of trades from the 2021 NFL Draft.The first is the trade that the Eagles made to move from the 12th pick in Round 1 to the 10th to select DeVonta Smith. The details of that trade are as follows:Eagles receive:Round 1, Pick 10 (WR DeVonta Smith)Cowboys receive:Round 1, Jimmy Wynn Jersey Pick 12 (LB Micah Parsons)Round 3, Pick 84 (DE Chauncey Golston)On the surface, this trade looks like a win for the Cowboys, who picked up a third-round pick to move down just two spots. Both trade value charts agree with that a se sment, as each has the Cowboys winning by a value equal to an early fourth-round pick.TeamJohnson value chartHill value chartEagles1,300369Cowboys1,370398Trade winnerCowboys by 70Cowboys by 29Another trade to look at is the one that the Jets and Vikings made to help New York move up and select Alijah Vera-Tucker. Here are the details of that deal:Jets receive:Round 1, Pick 14 (Vera-Tucker)Round 4, Pick 143 (traded to the Raiders)Vikings receive:Round 1, Pick 23 (Christian Darrisaw)Round 3, Pick 66 (Kellen Mond)Round 3, Pick 88 (Wyatt Davis)What does the trade value chart think about this deal for each team? It's considered to be pretty even, but once again, both models believe the team trading down, the Vikings, got the better value, as they beat the Jets in this deal by the value of a mid-to-late fourth-round pick.TeamJohnson value chartHill value chartJets1,134.5340Vikings1,170368Trade winnerVikings by 35.5Vikings by 28As you can see, the trade value chart is immensely helpful in breaking down which teams have "won" trades. More often than not, it seems like it will be the team trading down, as those moving up in the first round often have to pay a premium to do so.
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